Perennial Marketwatch curmudgeon Paul Farrell offers the following twelve tips for financial survival this year, courtesy of Forbes columnist Gary Schilling - who, by-the-way is said to have been right on target with his 2008 calls:
1. Sell home-builder stocks and bonds.
2. If you plan to sell your house, second home or investment houses anytime soon, do so yesterday. (Yes, another 20% drop is coming.)
3. Sell some housing-related stocks.
4. Sell some consumer discretionary spending companies.
5. Sell most commercial real estate.
6. Sell some commodities. (But proceed "carefully:" Selling "some" securities, or buying, or actively trading in today's volatile markets demands a level of skill sets, savvy and sophistication most investors lack.)
7. Sell emerging-market equities.
8. Sell emerging-market debt.
9. Sell stocks in general. (Shilling's forecast of a "severe recession suggests that corporate profits, as defined by the Commerce Department, will fall 48% from their peak in the third quarter 2007 to the fourth quarter 2009, and drop 32% from 2008 to 2009. This forecast implies much weaker S&P 500 earnings than projected by Wall Street analysts and strategies" whom he says "tend to be overly optimistic, especially in recessions when analysts don't want to offend managements of the companies they follow with low numbers.")
10. Sell consumer lenders' equities.
11. Buy the dollar.
12. Buy, carefully, high-grade bonds.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
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